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When Will I Learn KILS?

14 Jun 2021

Hint: A tale about making the same investment mistake over and over again.

Applying the KILS investment tactic. Photo by Frank Busch on Unsplash

Back in 2005, I took Peter Lynch to heart. I paraphrase — "Invest in what you know." I was using new technologies, so I decided to invest in emerging technology companies.

After all, that is what Mr. Lynch advised. Right?

I lived (suffered) through AI 1.0 in the mid-80s. I bet that AI 2.0 was going to be big.

I bought some Nvidia stock in 2017.

I was right.

By 2019, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning already had many smartphone deployment successes.

Then I did wrong.

I sold during the Bitcoin mining scare. Unfortunately, I let my fearful emotions overrule the rationale of my bet.

Don't get greedy, I told myself. I had already made about 200% profit.

KILS mistake.

NVDA is priced at over $700 in June 2021. KILS.

Have you guessed yet what KILS means?

No, keep going. You may need to understand.

Yes, keep going. You may want to be entertained by seeing more of my mistakes.

I purchased shares of IRobot back in 2009. Then, I thought robotics would be big.

In retrospect, it was a small mistake. In 2014, the hardware was there but not the software. The robotics market was getting bigger, but I overestimated the market growth speed.

I sold IRBT six years later at about $30. It is now about $95.

Small KILS Mistake.

Do you know of FANG, Facebook-Amazon-Netflix-Google? I was buying and unfortunately selling FANG stocks before they were called FANG.

What makes selling a big mistake is that I did not employ KILS.

I knew electric vehicles would be huge. I made some profit on Telsa when I sold at $80. TSLA is priced over $600 as of June 2021. Obviously, I did not employ KILS.

Only time will tell!

Note: Triple entendre.

I bought the following:

KILS successes?

I intend to use the KILS investment tactic and keep these stocks for five years or more. After that, I will try to keep them for at least another five years.

Or the crash.

I won't say what companies I am thinking about. That could be misconstrued as advice. My advice would probably be bad advice for you.

You may have heard of KISS, the motto of Keep It Simple, Stupid. Using the KISS process, the Marines made it a simpler motto — Simplify.

Note: Had you going there! Actually, the Marine motto is Semper Fi which is Latin for "Always Faithful."

Anyway, KILS is the famous investment tactic equivalent of KISS. KILS stands for "Keep It Long, Stupid."

Why is it famous? Because that is the investment tactic of Warren Buffet, Motley Fool, and other excellent investors.

I am hoping you do not use any of what I wrote as investment advice.

I know that hindsight causes you to categorize past actions as mistakes while not categorizing your successes.

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